What will the Amsterdam housing market look like in 5 years if the sell-off continues?
Due to the increasing sales of former rental properties – also known as ‘uitkommen’ – the Amsterdam housing market is changing rapidly. But what happens if this trend continues over the next five years? In this blog we analyse the most important effects on price development, supply and shortage.
1. Short term: more properties for sale
Selling off individual properties brings additional supply to the market, particularly small apartments that are popular with first-time buyers. This alleviates the immediate pressure – and leads to more transactions and fewer overbids than before. Rabobank and ABN AMRO are seeing a clear increase in sales figures, partly thanks to investors offloading properties onto the market.
2. Price development: rising, but slightly less quickly
House prices continue to rise in Amsterdam, but the pace is slowing slightly due to increased supply. Rabobank estimates an increase of +8.6% in 2025 and +5.7% in 2026. ABN AMRO expects the wave of house sales to largely subside by the end of 2025.
3. New construction will temporarily have less impact
In the coming years, the sale of individual homes will be greater than the sale of new homes. In 2024, there were approximately 37,000 individual homes sold, compared to approximately 26,000 new homes. This makes expanding the stock temporarily less dependent on construction, but also less structural.
4. Housing shortage remains
Selling off individual units will not change the total housing stock. The shortage – currently approximately 5% of the stock – will likely decrease in the second half of the 2020s through new construction. But until then, the shortage will remain noticeable.
5. Segment differences within the market
Properties for sale are primarily located in the €300,000-€450,000 range and in neighborhoods like Oost, Noord, and Nieuw-West. In these segments, price increases may slow due to increased supply. Pressure remains high in luxury segments.
6. Longer term: decline in sales, acceleration in construction
The wave of housing sales will likely taper off by 2026–2027. At the same time, new construction production in Amsterdam is increasing, but remains structurally lower than necessary to address the shortage.
📌 Summarized in 5 years
- 2025–2026: additional supply of homes for sale, delay in price increases.
- Price increase: at 5–9 % per year, but less quickly than without pounding.
- Shortage: remains noticeable even with pounding out and improved construction.
- Price pressure segments: stabilizes in starter segment, remains high in top segment.
What can you do?
✔ As a buyer: inform yourself about opportunities in sell-out neighborhoods through a purchasing agent and prepare your financing well.
✔ As an investor or seller: take advantage of the timing when selling – market prices remain relatively high.
✔ For policymakers: focus on accelerating new construction and transformation, because selling off only offers temporary relief.
Get advice about your strategy
Van de Steege Estate Agents helps buyers and sellers with insight into these market developments. Whether you are buying in a sell-out neighborhood or want to sell your rented real estate smartly – we guide you tailor-made.
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